Diversity and Technological Progress

This paper proposes a tractable model to study the equilibrium diversity of technological progress and shows that equilibrium technological progress may exhibit too little diversity (too much conformity), in particular, foregoing socially bene…cial investments in “alternative”technologies that will be used at some point in the future. The presence of future innovations that will replace current innovations imply that social bene…ts from innovation are not fully internalized. As a consequence, the market favors technologies that generate current gains relative to those that will bear fruit in the future; current innovations in research lines that will be pro…table in the future are discouraged because current innovations are typically followed by further innovations before they can be pro…tably marketed. A social planner would choose a more diverse research portfolio and would induce a higher growth rate than the equilibrium allocation. The diversity of researchers is a partial (imperfect) remedy against the misallocation induced by the market. Researchers with di¤erent interests, competences or ideas may choose non-pro…t maximizing and thus more diverse research portfolios, indirectly contributing to economic growth. JEL Classi…cation: O30, O31, O33, C65.